Dice Probability Calculator — Hit, Wound & Save

In games like Warhammer, you roll to hit (attacker skill), then to wound (weapon vs toughness), then the defender rolls to save (armour). Each step filters the number of dice. For example: 10 attacks hitting on 3+, wounding on 4+, saves on 5+ gives ~2.2 unsaved wounds on average.

Rolling 3+ means you need a 3, 4, 5, or 6 on a D6 to succeed — a 66.7% chance. Rolling 4+ is 50% (4, 5, or 6). Rolling 2+ is 83.3%. Rolling 6+ is only 16.7%.

These are statistical averages — expected values over many rolls. Individual dice rolls are random, so any single sequence can vary widely. With more dice, results tend to cluster closer to the average (law of large numbers).

Re-rolling all failures effectively gives you: P(success) = 1 - (1 - P)^2. For hitting on 4+ (50%), re-rolling misses gives 75%. For hitting on 3+ (66.7%), re-rolls give 88.9%. Re-rolls are very powerful on low-probability rolls.